Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Which forces will steer Florence?

The Delaware River at Riegelsville has fallen below 5' again - praise be! Tribs are falling back to seasonal norms.

I feel like this journal has become a weather blog with the hurricane season controlling the subject matter. There are only about 6 or 7 weeks left until we slip by the tropical depression making season, and into the ice and snow.

AccuWeather provides an excellent graphic depicting Florence and the very different paths it may take depending on how the current high pressure system plays out.

AccuWeather Meteorologist Lisa Wieser says:
".....there are two scenarios which could play out. The first is the one most of us are probably hoping for, that Florence will curve away from the East Coast. For this scenario to occur, the high pressure system in the central Atlantic would have to weaken as it shifts eastward during the weekend. The clockwise flow around the high would curve Florence to the northeast before it reaches the coast early next week. At the same time, an upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes region into the Northeast early next week. This trough's counter-clockwise flow would help keep Florence away from the coast as well. The second scenario, the more dangerous situation, involves the Atlantic high strengthening and expanding westward over the weekend. This would send Florence on a nearly due-west track right into the coast early next week, and slow the eastward progress of the upper-level trough which would push Florence away."

If Florence stays off the coast and heads out into the Atlantic we will have good conditions for Operation River Bright on September 16. If it heads to the coast....well, we may be doing a land-based cleanup of river accesses and parks.

Stay tuned.....Florence will show her hand this weekend.

No comments: