The Philly Inquirer has an interesting article about storm forecasting. Forecasters are supposedly better at predicting storm track than storm intensity.
Speaking of which, Ernesto is predicted to weaken to an "extratropical low." That means not a lot of wind but potentially a lot of rain. Wunderground says the following:
"The track reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ernesto is forecast to continue north to north-northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States. As Ernesto becomes extratropical it is expected to turn slightly north-northwestward around the east side of a cut-off low over the Ohio Valley. The official track forecast remains virtually unchanged and is an update of the previous advisory."
National Weather Service continues to say:
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.
Unfortunate;y, as of 7:00 AM this morning the USGS stream gauges are down (at least for NJ and PA).
Hopefully we'll get one day of sunshine.