Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Hurricane Watching...

These days I am using three sources to keep track of significant weather events. AccuWeather, Weather Channel (NWS), and Wunderground. All rely on NOAA-NWS data gathered by various sources including satellite and storm tracking planes. What happens to the data is critical as there are different models being used to predict weather with varying results. For those situated in a floodplain it is advisable to pay attention to all the forecasts and prepare for the worst.

ERNESTO appears to be headed to our region this weekend as a tropical storm.

Here is a quote from Wunderground as of 5 AM this morning: "The models also agree that Ernesto should re-emerge over the Atlantic off the northeastern Florida coast and make a second landfall in the South Carolina-North Carolina area in 60-72 hours. After the second U.S. Landfall...Ernesto is expected to be caught up by the aforementioned shortwave trough and be drawn northward into the eastern Great Lakes area and possibly become a significant extratropical low pressure system. The official forecast track is just an extension of the previous track through 72 hours...and then west of the previous track at 96 and 120 hours.
This is consistent with the various NHC consensus model forecasts."

AccuWeather gives a slightly different twist with both a more hopeful and a more dire scenario: "
Flooding concerns could return to the Northeast this Labor Day weekend if a trough of low pressure, currently over the country's midsection, stalls and then lingers over the Mississippi Valley. AccuWeather.com is hoping that the trough will continue to shift eastward and send Ernesto out to sea; however, if the trough lingers, then the southerly winds around the trough will guide the storm northward into the mid-Atlantic states and Northeast region on Friday and into the Labor Day holiday weekend. If Ernesto does take a northerly track, flooding rain could deluge areas that were ravaged by floods at the end of June.
AccuWeather.com is also monitoring the possibility that the trough does shift Ernesto past the North Carolina coast, but a blocking area of high pressure would then stop any more forward progress. With the high firmly in place to the northeast of the storm, Ernesto would just sit and spin off the North Carolina coast, possibly moving back inland after a few days."
(Story by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Kristina Baker)

Meanwhile, the Delaware River at Riegelsville is up almost a foot to 4.29 and the tribs have come up a bit. Once again the Pocono Region streams have received the most rainfall and are the having the greatest impact on the river. There is a flood watch in effect today for streams in the region, but this poses no threat to the river. We need to dry out before Ernesto gets here. There is hope that Ernesto will just GO AWAY (head out into the Atlantic), but that appears to be the least likely scenario.

I will update the hurricane watch as needed.

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