Monday, September 05, 2011

Ominous forecast...

What the hell?

By 9:30am this Labor Day morning Upper Black Eddy was already getting dumped on, and the forecast called for rain this afternoon; not a good sign. Flood watches are posted for the entire region. This map at Weather Underground says it all.

Tropical Depression Lee is just opening up on us and isn't scheduled to be done until sometime Wednesday. Nobody knows how much will come down but it seems at this rate it could be several inches of rain over the next few days.

If this happens we'll see more flooding, especially on those streams that already saw record high water (Musconetcong River and Assunpink Creek to name a few). The NYC Reservoirs are at 100% capacity, except Cannonsville which is just over 98%.

NOAA has the river at Riegelsville attaining a height of 18' by Thursday and that is great news. I'm surprised and worried that that prediction is way under (22' is beginning of flood stage at that particular gage - it got upp to 25' last Monday).

The Delaware River at Riegelsville is heading upwards from 8.31' and the Musconetcong River at Bloomsbury is at 2.84' and will begin to surge higher after this cell moves north from Bucks into Hunterdon and Warren counties.

Little else to say except: Hurricane Katia. It is predicted to not hit the Outer Banks and the mid-Atlantic. Cape Cod could be in trouble. However, even though most models show it heading towards Greenland, there is a possibility that this storm could change its course and slam us. If that happens...I'll be predicting 'epic flood' once again. It didn't happen last week along the Delaware River. Others living along smaller rivers and streams in our region weren't so lucky.

All floodplain dwellers should keep up with conditions and predictions and check multiple sources. Never rely on any one forecasting service!

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