Friday, March 16, 2007

Flood Potential Update

The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service shows the river at Riegelsville topping off around 12.50' (10 feet below flood stage). It is now at 10.30' and surging upward. I think it will surpass the current prediction.

Most upriver streams have already peaked, probably because they are getting snow, and the rising water levels in the upper watershed were occuring because of snow melt.

I don't think there is much to worry about with this storm. But the next rain storm could cause flooding problems due to the increased snow pack in the upper watersheds. The ideal scenario would be for a gradual warming minus rain.

I plan to paddle the Upper Tohickon on Sunday, if anyone cares to join in. It will be quite cold (40 deg.), but with snow on the ground, so very beautiful. The upper Toh is a Class I & II (maybe just a touch of III) creek and with the Nockamixon dam release it is very pushy, only appropriate for experienced paddlers with proper cold weather gear.

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